Another Google "Ultra" model in 2025?
60
1kαΉ€20k
Dec 31
38%
chance

Recently they've released Flash and Pro models, but no Ultra model. Will they release / announce an "Ultra" model in 2025?

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opened a αΉ€500 NO at 40% order

@Bayesian I set a NO limit order at 40% for 500, lemme know if you're interested in more at that price

bought αΉ€250 YES

@FergusArgyll I'd probably eat a few more k of that!

opened a αΉ€1,000 NO at 40% order

@HenriThunberg Put up 1k - expires in a day

Google Energy Zero Ultra

opened a αΉ€250 NO at 39% order

they just named their new subscription "Ultra", and they are building new tools on top of 2.5 Pro that make it have the capabilities one would expect from a heavier flavor of a model. Highly doubt that they are doing a 2.5 or 3.0 Ultra.

@256 This seems correct to me, they don't mention any new llms in that blogpost.

here's the link

https://blog.google/products/google-one/google-ai-ultra/

opened a αΉ€20,000 YES at 30% order

@Bayesian If Anthropics release doesn't include Opus, I'd consider taking you up. We might find out this week

sold αΉ€114 NO

@Bayesian They did release opus, so I took a little profit and will prob not take your limit order...

bought αΉ€75 NO

emotional hedge

They're up to 2.5 in flash and pro and iirc (and my googling serves me right) still don't have an ultra 2.0.

Anthropic no longer releases Opus models. I think the scaling laws are practically somewhat dead[0], and the big players have abandoned the super big model model.

[0] By that I mean a combination of: diminishing returns, distilling working pretty well, financial diminishing returns (e.g. gpt 4.5 ) , scaling laws actually being dead and effectiveness of test time compute

@FergusArgyll I think in a non reasoning regime they d be scaling them more, but with reasoning which u can do more of with smaller models there’s a tradeoff and optimal size to maximize intelligence for a set amt of compute that is smaller than in a scale only world

bought αΉ€300 YES

@CrypticQccZ @draaglom why the buy and sell if you dont mind sharing

@Bayesian i realized i wasn't super convinced by the pixel leak and decided to revert mostly to my base-rate from the more reliable leak i posted earlier (around 90%). so i had to derisk because i have veyr little mana. if i could trade off EV i would have bought more YES

bought αΉ€400 YES
bought αΉ€471 YES

@CrypticQccZ seems fake

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