It costs less than 6000 mana to make this resolve yes, so many whales can pick up good profit here. why isn’t it closer to 50%?

@TheBayesian Correct analysis. Resolves YES.

@firstuserhere Or maybe incorrect? Was thinking of placing 37000 no order at 89% but missed the time. I don't think anyone had the mana to overcome that.

@ChristopherRandles Oh, that's fair. I think TheBayesian is refering to this question being possible to resolve either way, and that people should be keeping it close to the state of maximum uncertainty, and not bid it too high/low, because its the last minute moves which decide the outcome anyway

@ChristopherRandles How much mana would've been required to overcome that?

Regardless, you're probably right. Very unlikely anyonw would've beaten you there.

@firstuserhere When I checked 20 mins before close namesarehard had a 305k mana balance. multi million mana Marcus (m4?) was remarkably fully invested so would have had to sell a lot.

I had 40k mana at that stage before getting distracted by football (too much injury time :( )

Anyway 305k/0.89 = 343k

40k / 0.11 = 364k

But after investing 3k in football

37k / 0.11 = 336k

So I was ok when I did my planning if I didn't get distracted by football, With that 3k invested It is very close and I could have been in trouble if Namesarehard bet all in last second after me. If Namesarehard bet up to 90% before I bet down last to 89% then I would be OK unless Namesarehard plus someone like you were bidding it up.

Anyway not completely risk free for me but the potential gains betting the way I intended seem huge for fairly small risk..

@ChristopherRandles Marcus, Mira, and I almost always are fully invested and typically run a low balance.

But anyway, i doubt @NamesAreHard would be interested in sniping this (right?). Especially at those numbers. Huge risk

If I had seen you put that limit order, I'd have understood I'm losing this (its way harder to keep it above 90% than below) and exited at a loss.

@firstuserhere I didn't know about the market but if I was going to participate, it would have been to snipe the snipers with a large limit on NO at the last second :)

@NamesAreHard Yep, that sounds like the better strategy. I got lucky that no-one else sniped this xD

@firstuserhere So now we are all agreed bidding up is too risky on this market, If it had been at 50% when I looked I would have bought some no. So what is correct price for this market prior to last few minutes? 1% 5% 10% 25% ? I am really not sure. 20% discouraged me from buying no. 40% near end looked tempting but I decided to run silent with no transactions.

Only 3334 mana needed to get to 90%