Resolution Criteria

The market resolves YES if Iran's Assembly of Experts officially announces a new Supreme Leader before April 30, 2026. Mojtaba Khamenei was announced as the new supreme leader on March 9, 2026, meaning this market has already resolved YES.

Background

Ali Khamenei served as Iran's second supreme leader from 1989 until his assassination on February 28, 2026. Following his assassination, the Assembly of Experts held an election from March 3-8, 2026, and on March 9 announced in a unanimous vote that Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader's son, would be the new supreme leader.

Considerations

Since his appointment, Mojtaba Khamenei has not made any public appearances or statements, with American and Israeli security officials reporting that the newly appointed supreme leader is wounded and unresponsive to communications. Israeli officials stated that clerics and commanders of Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have consolidated their grip on the country.

This description was generated by AI.