Will Canada tariffs last until March?
30
100Ṁ3101
resolved Feb 3
Resolved
NO

The market resolves YES if the tariffs set to be enacted on Saturday, February 1st, are indeed enacted, and then proceed to remain in effect without interruption until March 1st, 2025.

If the tariffs are rescinded, never come into effect, or are otherwise rendered ineffectual (such as through a massive set of exceptions that practically eliminate them de facto) before March 1st, 2025, the question will resolve NO.

  • Update 2025-01-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification to the resolution criteria:

    • 90% Threshold: Tariffs will be considered ineffectual if over 90% of the total value of goods passing between the countries is not subject to them.

Politics
Economics
Tariff
US-Canada Relations
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ2,049
2Ṁ171
3Ṁ28
4Ṁ28
5Ṁ23

People are also trading

Will Trump increase its tariffs on Canada to 50% or higher by June 30th?
14% chance
Will any tariffs enacted by President Trump in 2025 remain at 25% or higher on any goods from Canada by end of 2025?
59% chance
Will Trump's import tariffs on Canada and Mexico be in effect and at least at 25% by EOY?
39% chance
Canada's tariff rate on US goods at the end of Q2?
31.7
Will Trump implement a 250% reciprocal tariff on Canadian lumber or dairy products?
22% chance
Which countries or groups will retaliate against Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs by the end of 2025?
Will tariffs in Q4 2025 be below what they were in Q4 2024?
15% chance
Days until tariffs roll back to less than 10% after the tax cut passes?
60.5
US tariffs on Chinese imports on January 1, 2027?
US tariffs on Chinese imports on January 1, 2028?
Sort by:

My new tariffs market: https://manifold.markets/Balasar/will-steel-tariffs-last-longer-than

At long last, we are getting rid of all those hardened fentanyl smugglers on the Canadian border! Resolving to NO.

https://x.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1885414637610447168?t=EYqSOG174I6RadBxIcnu-w&s=19

Let's see if negotiations are successful.

Whose judgment will you be using as to whether they have been rendered ineffectual?

@apetresc To make that precise, over 90% of the total value of goods passing between the countries must not be subject to the tariffs.

People are also trading

Will Trump increase its tariffs on Canada to 50% or higher by June 30th?
14% chance
Will any tariffs enacted by President Trump in 2025 remain at 25% or higher on any goods from Canada by end of 2025?
59% chance
Will Trump's import tariffs on Canada and Mexico be in effect and at least at 25% by EOY?
39% chance
Canada's tariff rate on US goods at the end of Q2?
31.7
Will Trump implement a 250% reciprocal tariff on Canadian lumber or dairy products?
22% chance
Which countries or groups will retaliate against Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs by the end of 2025?
Will tariffs in Q4 2025 be below what they were in Q4 2024?
15% chance
Days until tariffs roll back to less than 10% after the tax cut passes?
60.5
US tariffs on Chinese imports on January 1, 2027?
US tariffs on Chinese imports on January 1, 2028?
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules