Background

On February 1st, 2025, President Trump implemented a 25% tariff on imports from Canada, with a lower 10% tariff on Canadian energy resources. The executive orders include provisions for potential increases if Canada retaliates against these measures.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if:

• The U.S. government officially announces or implements tariffs of 50% or higher on Canadian imports (excluding specific carve-outs) that take effect on or before June 30th, 2025

• The increased tariffs must apply broadly to Canadian imports, not just to specific products or sectors

This market will resolve NO if:

• No such increase is announced or implemented by June 30th, 2025

• Announced increases don't reach the 50% threshold