Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, as defined below, holds continuously until December 31, 2025, at 23:59 UTC. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
"Ceasefire holds" means there is no widely reported resumption of significant, sustained military operations between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Hamas or other Palestinian militant groups in or originating from the Gaza Strip.
The market will resolve "No" if, prior to or on December 31, 2025, 23:59 UTC, at least two of the following major international news organizations report a resumption of significant military conflict, such as sustained airstrikes, raids, ground incursions, or widespread rocket fire:
Isolated incidents, minor skirmishes, or limited retaliatory actions that do not escalate into a sustained military campaign and are not widely reported as a breakdown of the ceasefire by the specified sources will not be considered a breach for the purpose of this market's resolution.
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