Does Manifold think that the Trump administration used a language model to set tariff rates?
46
100Ṁ2202
resolved Apr 24
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if by a poll of non-traders, a majority of Manifold users express the belief that the Trump administration used a LLM like ChatGPT, Claude, Groq, etc. to create tariff rates or a tariff formula. Resolves NO if the poll is tied or in favor of the idea that the Trump administration came up with the formula or rates on their own.

Traders who bet in this market are excluded from the poll for resolution purposes.

Relevant background: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-tariffs-chatgpt-2055203

I have also personally confirmed that ChatGPT is liable to give this answer if prompted, roughly half of the time.

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