This market resolves as Yes if the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee announces Xi Jinping will step down at the end of his current term.
May 31, 4:30pm: Interesting to see George Soros's take on this. Ultimately he thinks Xi needs to have his power limited somehow, though admits he is bureaucratically entrenched.
Close date updated to 2022-10-20 11:59 pm
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Interestingly, PredictIt is still showing only 94% (up from 83% last week)
I didn't intend for this market to close yet, but since it has I am not going to change its status until getting feedback from market participants. I would like to hear from bettors on preference between either (1) letting this market sit unresolved until an announcement is made by the CCP later this fall or (2) reopen the market for trading and keep it open until it resolves?
@ahalekelly Xi already is Chairman. The CCP is kinda absurd about titles. President doesn’t automatically mean commander and chief of the military like it does in the US. In fact, the military is specifically under party control and in the case of war it is controlled by regional factional leaders, not central command or joint chiefs who report to Xi. Jiang Zemin maintained control of the military after leaving office and throughout his successor Hu Jintao’s presidency despite being officially retired from political life.
The scariest title Xi could be given is Helmsman IMO. Kinda like ‘People’s Leader’ it has only ever been given to Mao, but it has a decidedly wartime vibe.
@BTE https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Xi-Jinping-moves-closer-to-reviving-chairman-title-to-match-Mao
Apparently Xi is Chairman of the Central Military Committee and General Secretary of the CCP, but the title Chairman of the CCP was eliminated in 1982
@ahalekelly I see, you mean if they start calling him Chairman Xi like they referred to Chairman Mao. It is so hard to keep track of the titles. I definitely think Xi will get at least one title that hasn't been given since at least Deng Xiaoping. He may even create a new political committee with unprecedented powers. I don't think there is anything more difficult to predict than the inner workings of the CCP and the decisions of its leadership in particular.
@BTE right, I'm just confirming that this will resolve no if they change the titles but he remains in charge
@ahalekelly Yes if they drop President completely. But if he retains the president title and adds new ones it will resolve YES. Make sense?
@ahalekelly If he gets a new title and retains president he is not replaced so resolves NO. If he gets a new title and appoints someone else president then he his replaced and it resolves YES. The question is explicitly about a replacement, not about Xi’s title. If he takes the Chairman title and retires the president title (which I imagine is what you have in mind) it resolves NO. Does that clear it up?