Will Xi Jinping choose a successor in 2027?
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4
Ṁ502027
27%
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After the election of the 21st Politburo Standing Committee of the CCP in 2027, will the consensus among Western China analysts be that Xi has chosen a successor?
Traditionally a successor would be chosen at the beginning of a General Secretary's second and final term, who would serve on the PSC. Xi did not make such an 'appointment' in 2017 or 2022.
I will assess the consensus after the National Congress of the Party in 2027. I will not bet in this market.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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