Will Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift get engaged by the end of 2024?
110
667
1.1k
2025
49%
chance

Will Travis put a ring on it?

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bought Ṁ120 NO
bought Ṁ10 YES from 33% to 34%

Have you all never heard of a little something called "Base Rates"?

@MichaelWheatley If you enjoy markets with a strong disregard for base rates you might also enjoy https://manifold.markets/BowieHill/which-of-these-people-will-be-alive-209a8d73a87a?r=VGhlb1NwZWFycw

hel no. this is just ridiculous

@BTE curious how this would resolve if they got married before getting engaged. Not sure if that's a thing but....

@Eliza Like eloping to Vegas? I think once you commit to the Vegas trip you are engaged technically. But if it happened drunk on a whim maybe that is a NO? Interesting edge case...