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The police website has details on all the protests including expected attendance. Just from the past week there's a 2,000 people explicitly anti-government protest, a rally for the hostage families numbering 15,000 (these are very often anti-government and contain lots of anger about 10/7). Plenty more earlier ones. Source: https://www.gov.il/he/departments/dynamiccollectors/ishurmivtza?skip=0
@Shump Compare to the 250,000+ people who marched against the government before 10/7...
0.02% of the population protested against an unpopular government for nebulous reasons requires quite some stretching to reach 'widespread protests against the government for a specific thing'...
@BTE question isn't 'would there be widespread protests against the government if there were no risk of rocket attack?'
@PaulBenjaminPhotographer Use common sense dude. These are HUGE protests considering the risks. HUGE!!
@BTE you'll have to point me to the part of the question or description where 'considering the risks' is mentioned?
As things stand there are 'protests' (the majority of which are rallies in support of hostage families) which are smaller and less disruptive than those which happened before 10/7.
These 'protests' have been going on for weeks if not months, if these were sufficient to count as 'widespread' and 'against the government for 10/7' this market should uave resolved before it opened.
Is the goal of your market to predict the answer to the question you ask or to predict which answer you will prefer and subsequently profit from?
@PaulBenjaminPhotographer Netanyahu is the most unpopular leader in the world. The protests changed this week though and took on a political tone and were held across the country. I totally disagree that all demonstrations are organized to protest the government but the one a couple nights ago was unquestionably different in.its tone against the current government.
@BTE one protest = widespread protests (note the plural)?
Against the already unpopular government = against the government *for* [failing to prevent] 10/7?
@BTE "over the management of the ongoing war in Gaza and the failure so far to secure the release of the remaining hostages."
Not, importantly, over the failures leading to the 10/7 attacks...
@BTE Also it is not really "widespread protests" it is just one slightly larger protest.
@patrik I think most notably, probably smaller protests than were happening before 10/7.
@PaulBenjaminPhotographer There's a protest sign in that picture that says "You failed. You forsaken. Go away. 7th of October". These protests are absolutely about 10/7
@Shump Well the market is not about "will at least one protestor directly mention 10/7".
@Shump Even if we take the absolute maximum of 'tens of thousands of protestors' (100k) that' still be ~1% of the population...
Hardly 'widespread'.
@patrik See the families of the hostages not protesting widely? Like is it just because the numbers are small? Because I think maybe large numbers of protestors are precluded by rockets from Hamas/Hezbollah, which makes that a less good measure. But 90 percent of the public disapprove of Netanyahu's job and most blame his government for 10/7.
@BTE If the hostage protests count, I'm pretty sure this should resolve YES. They were definitely widespread. I can look for some numbers if it's needed.
@BTE Yes, I mean that's not something I'd call a widespread protest. And clearly I'm not the only one given that before you the creator of the market mentioned it it was at 17%.
@patrik Wouldn't "tens of thousands" be enough?
https://www.mako.co.il/news-israel/2023_q4/Article-97b894b3fe60c81026.htm
@Shump Yes but shouldn't you be able to make assumptions based on whether it did or did not resolve?
@Shump Sorry about the missed comments. I create too many markets and often comments get buried and shuffled off the notifications before i see them. this happens VERY often honestly and i feel bad about it.
@patrik why would you make assumptions about any information that wasn't already discussed here in the comments and addressed by me (or any market maker)?
@patrik Plus I have made at least this one comment in the last ten days to indicate my take.
@BTE Why would you make markets that you can't properly manage? Clearly there are questions from 11d ago and yet no one was willing to bet it up because the resolution is so unclear. At which point people betting simply have to make assumptions based on the mechanics of markets: something doesn't resolve -> no event met the criteria yet.
@BTE Otherwise it would be simply guessing which side will you take. That's not what prediction markets are about.
@BTE Honestly it would be fair to resolve the market N/A. I hope you understand why. And I'm not just saying this because I would lose Mana but also this is not how markets should be managed and people predicting treated.
@patrik And according to the comment at top it happened last night across the country. Still need to confirm that because no link.
@BTE The fact that you were betting it up doesn't mean anything. If you consider the protests already happened you are meant to resolve it. Traders are not supposed to watch for what the market creator is betting on.