Will there be another earthquake in February that tops 7 on the Richter Scale?
22
194
430
resolved Mar 3
Resolved
NO

The Turkey quake was 7.8. Only about a dozen recorded earthquakes were more powerful. Each .1 increase is a doubling of intensity.

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Richter Scale is not normally used...moment magnitude is the standard

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@AlQuinn It’s how earthquakes are reported in the news though.

@BTE I'm pretty sure you will hardly see any mention of Richter scale, and when there is one, it's almost certainly a mistake. The Richter scale was calibrated specifically for strike-slip type earthquakes in California but fell out of disuse decades ago since the global adoption of the moment magnitude scale (though some of the near-realtime magnitude estimates will make use of body-wave and surface-wave scales)

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@BTE this should resolve yes?

bought Ṁ85 of NO
predicted YES
predicted YES

@footgun @NamesAreHard For this market we probably need to wait at least a few days after any individual event to account for issues like this where there is a downward revision. Though we should also keep an eye on upward revision of older quakes too, beginning with the time this question was created.

predicted NO

@BTE Seems like this can be resolved. The earthquake we were discussing in this thread remained as 6.8 and there hasn't been anything else larger than 6. I'm checking here: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/

predicted NO

@NamesAreHard Larger than 6.5*

predicted YES

@NamesAreHard I had looked the other day but figured i would wait for a second opinion. Resolved. Thanks for checking that out and weighing in!!

bought Ṁ10 of NO

This is surprisingly quite common. According to Wiki, earthquake above 7 happens 16-21 times per year. Using Poisson distribution to estimate, should be around 54%…

bought Ṁ16 of YES

@footgun 11-21*