Will the US deliver ATACMS long range missiles to Ukraine by the end of 2023?
38
670Ṁ8227
resolved Oct 17
Resolved
YES
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predictedNO

I feel like this resolved prematurely: there is only a couple media claims of ATACMS being used. These could be rumours.

@42irrationalist Why does this happen every time someone is wrong? They accuse me of having some problem? The US has been saying the would be in Ukraine “by next week” for a month.

@42irrationalist I agree. If I had known Brian would take the view this was conclusive proof I would have bet it substantially higher than 75%

predictedYES

@JoshuaWilkes Do you want me to go inspect the damage caused and try to find pieces that say “ATACMS: Made in the USA”?? Come on guys. Sometimes you are wrong.

predictedYES

@JoshuaWilkes You were right and are still complaining !?

predictedYES

@42irrationalist what exactly is not enough about us saying we are absolutely no question providing them any day followed by a solid claim of them being used by Ukraine. There is no more evidence to be seen.

predictedYES

@SemioticRivalry This is good evidence! Thank you for sharing!!

predictedNO

@BTE
> The US has been saying the would be in Ukraine “by next week” for a month.

So they keep promising to deliver them "by next week" for 3 weeks without actually delivering them? Why would you then resolve based on the same claim on the 4th week?

> Do you want me to go inspect the damage caused and try to find pieces that say “ATACMS: Made in the USA”?? Come on guys. Sometimes you are wrong.

I would prefer you to wait until several media reports and some OSINT organizations confirming it.

predictedYES

I hadn't seen the WSJ article, which I believe wasn't released when I made my bet.

But now I see that you hadn't seen it either, so...

In any case, I withdraw my comment about proof, which is just factually incorrect

predictedYES

@42irrationalist I had in fact seen it. I didn’t feel the need to justify myself with a link but appreciate @SemioticRivalry doing so.

predictedNO

@BTE

> I didn’t feel the need to justify myself with a link

Alright, there is clearly no point of discussing this further. I'll just leave a 3 star review on the way this market was run and move on.

predictedYES

@42irrationalist That is fucked up. Typical sore loser. How do I rate that??

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