Will the US deliver ATACMS long range missiles to Ukraine by the end of 2023?
38
160
670
resolved Oct 17
Resolved
YES
Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ464
2Ṁ221
3Ṁ209
4Ṁ130
5Ṁ78
Sort by:
predicted NO

I feel like this resolved prematurely: there is only a couple media claims of ATACMS being used. These could be rumours.

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

@42irrationalist Why does this happen every time someone is wrong? They accuse me of having some problem? The US has been saying the would be in Ukraine “by next week” for a month.

bought Ṁ130 of YES

@42irrationalist I agree. If I had known Brian would take the view this was conclusive proof I would have bet it substantially higher than 75%

predicted YES

@JoshuaWilkes Do you want me to go inspect the damage caused and try to find pieces that say “ATACMS: Made in the USA”?? Come on guys. Sometimes you are wrong.

predicted YES

@JoshuaWilkes You were right and are still complaining !?

predicted YES

@42irrationalist what exactly is not enough about us saying we are absolutely no question providing them any day followed by a solid claim of them being used by Ukraine. There is no more evidence to be seen.

predicted YES

@SemioticRivalry This is good evidence! Thank you for sharing!!

predicted NO

@BTE
> The US has been saying the would be in Ukraine “by next week” for a month.

So they keep promising to deliver them "by next week" for 3 weeks without actually delivering them? Why would you then resolve based on the same claim on the 4th week?

> Do you want me to go inspect the damage caused and try to find pieces that say “ATACMS: Made in the USA”?? Come on guys. Sometimes you are wrong.

I would prefer you to wait until several media reports and some OSINT organizations confirming it.

predicted YES

I hadn't seen the WSJ article, which I believe wasn't released when I made my bet.

But now I see that you hadn't seen it either, so...

In any case, I withdraw my comment about proof, which is just factually incorrect

predicted YES

@42irrationalist I had in fact seen it. I didn’t feel the need to justify myself with a link but appreciate @SemioticRivalry doing so.

predicted NO

@BTE

> I didn’t feel the need to justify myself with a link

Alright, there is clearly no point of discussing this further. I'll just leave a 3 star review on the way this market was run and move on.

predicted YES

@42irrationalist That is fucked up. Typical sore loser. How do I rate that??