A brewing secession movement in Azerbaijan controlled territory settled by ethnic Armenians is coming to a head. This market resolves YES if the ethnic Armenians secede from Azerbaijan by the end of 2023.
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@Yoav So to be sure I understand, you think this question is essentially asking the equivalent of "will the Palestinians declare their self determination to have their own state?"
@BTE If we’re considering the West Bank to be akin to Nagorno-Karabakh then it’s slightly different because Israel doesn’t have an internationally recognized claim over land where Palestinians live, whereas most countries recognize Azerbaijan’s claim to NK.
My thinking is that Artsakh is NK’s secession and claim to self determination actualized, and since Artsakh is like another NK government then this has happened. What would have to be different from squo for this to resolve YES?
@Yoav I was imaging the reunification with Armenia via land corridor. Presumably this would require a major escalation in the conflict. Does that make sense?
@BTE Sure. If NK secedes though, I’m not sure that implies they have a land corridor since the Lachin pass isn’t formally part of NK.