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This will resolve NO once a new speaker is chosen.

@BTE yeah I guess theoretically McCarthy could be re-elected as speaker (despite how unlikely). Even crazier...what if a new speaker is chosen, then ousted (McCarthy-style), then McCarthy becomes speaker again, and then visits Taiwan...all before the 119th Congress is seated 😂

Yesterday's meetings were in California, not in Taiwan. A meeting in Taiwan is of course still possible, but I don't think it's 88% likely.

https://www.ft.com/content/69b627fc-ab7f-4b19-9ea3-5c308d81c6ef

US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Taiwan’s president Tsai Ing-wen plan to meet in California rather than Taipei in a bid to avoid an aggressive response from Beijing to a meeting on the island.

@Gabrielle The Taiwanese had to basically beg him not to come. And main reason is next year's presidential election, so you can bet your ass he will he going to meet the winner next year.

@BTE Feel free to take my mana then :)

Under what conditions would this resolve NO? Would McCarthy have to have died without visiting Taiwan? Otherwise even if he isn't Speaker there'd always be a chance he could become speaker again and then visit Taiwan.

@PeterWildeford This is about the 118th Congress, which lasts for two years starting January 3rd.

@BTE Excellent thanks!

@PeterWildeford I did say in the description that it would resolve N/A if he is not elected speaker but you are right he could end up speaker ultimately without being the first choice so I will leave the market open throughout the 118th Congress even if he isn't elected speaker.

@BTE is the N/A provision fully gone now? So if he never becomes speaker this Congress, this is a NO?

@PeterWildeford My bad I knew it felt wrong to totally erase that bit. Thanks!!

McCarthy has all but guaranteed he will do this.