Will Israel preemptively launch non-clandestine strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities before June 1, 2023?
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resolved Jun 1
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if Israel preemptively and overtly launches airstrikes on Iranian targets associated with the country's nuclear weapons program before June 1, 2023. Resolves NO if not.

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predicted NO

@JakeFromHackmud do you know something we don't? Should I be practicing bomb drills?

predicted YES

@Shai Mostly on a tweet last night that has since been deleted. Seemed pretty low for what has been happening, but I might be very wrong!

predicted NO

Could somebody explain their reasoning in more detail? ~1/3 seems too high for me (absurdly so). There has been aggressive rhetoric as well as more-or-less secret operations between Israel and Iran forever. Is there any reason to be this confident in believing the Current Thing will escalate?

predicted YES

Netanyahu is very openly trying to become a dictator. He is executing an autogolpe and once complete he will be free to do whatever the hell he wants. The IAEA has confirmed Iran is going to have enough enriched uranium for a weapon any day. Plus, the Ayatollah is weaker politically than ever before. Why do you think Israel will just wait and see what happens??

predicted YES

@habakuk One of the biggest pieces of evidence for me is that the US thinks a unilateral Israeli strike is possible enough that they need to send the chairman of the joint chiefs on an unplanned visit to try to talk them out of it:

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/syq0sgxkh

Combined with smaller bits of evidence like Netanyahu saying "Of course we are doing this", the Israeli air force suddenly practicing long-range air missions (to Gibraltar), and the general sense that there isn't a lot more road to kick the can down, now that Iran has demonstrated the ability and willingness to enrich to weapons-grade level.

(There seems to be a polite fiction that it's not weapons-grade until 90%, but in fact nuclear weapons could be made with enough of the 84%, and there's no real technical barrier between 84% and 90% anyway.)

There's obviously a good chance that it nonetheless won't happen, but that's why the market is under 50%.

predicted NO

@PeterBorah
Thank you. I think this is a somewhat sensible explanation. Even with this information 1/4 (or 1/5) seems too high to me 🤷

predicted NO

@BTE "Openly trying to become a dictator" is very much overstating the current situation.

Regardless, even if we grant that that is his goal, you think his chance of success more that 30%?

predicted YES

Netanyahu today:

“Rafael Grossi is a worthy person who made an unworthy remark,” Netanyahu said in response at the weekly cabinet meeting. “Outlawed by what law? Is Iran, which publicly calls for our extermination, allowed to protect its weapons of destruction that will slaughter us?”

“Are we forbidden to defend ourselves?” he added. “Of course, we are allowed, and of course, we are doing this… nothing will prevent us from protecting our country and preventing oppressors from destroying the Jewish state.”

predicted YES

New developments every day.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-19/iran-nuclear-inspectors-detect-uranium-enriched-to-84-purity#xj4y7vzkg

Iran Nuclear Inspectors Detect Uranium Enriched to 84% Purity


"International atomic monitors in Iran last week detected uranium enriched to levels just below that needed for a nuclear weapon, according to two senior diplomats, underscoring the risk that the country’s unrestrained atomic activities could prompt a new crisis.

The International Atomic Energy Agency is trying to clarify how Iran accumulated uranium enriched to 84% purity — the highest level found by inspectors in the country to date, and a concentration just 6% below what’s needed for a weapon. Iran had previously told the IAEA that its centrifuges were configured to enrich uranium to a 60% level of purity."


https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/us-envoy-nides-israel-can-do-whatever-they-need-on-iran-and-weve-got-their-back/

US Amb to Israel:

“The Iranians are providing drones to Russia and those drones are killing innocent Ukrainians. There is no chance today of us going back to the negotiating table,”

“As President [Joe] Biden has said, we will not stand by and watch Iran get a nuclear weapon, number one. Number two, he said, all options are on the table. Number three, Israel can and should do whatever they need to deal with and we’ve got their back,” Nides adds.




bought Ṁ10 of YES

Israel already covertly attacked Iran a few weeks ago.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/30/middleeast/drone-strikes-iran-isfahan-intl/index.html

Now it is just a question of whether it will escalate.

https://www.rfi.fr/fr/moyen-orient/20230201-isra%C3%ABl-netanyahu-en-visite-%C3%A0-paris-%C3%A0-la-recherche-d-alli%C3%A9s-contre-l-iran


"On paper, everything is ready. Israel has studied in great detail its strategy to attack Iran. Some 3,000 targets have been identified, and the Jewish state wants to take action quickly.

Until then, Paris and Washington had categorically rejected this option, preferring the diplomatic solution with Iran, reveals a source familiar with the matter. But the situation has changed.

First, the Iranian nuclear deal seems to be in jeopardy. Then, Israel made an effort to position itself in the Western camp, in the Russian-Ukrainian file. The Jewish state says it plans to support Kyiv militarily against Moscow."

Then the Israeli FM visited Kyiv:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/hosting-fm-cohen-in-kyiv-zelensky-says-iran-is-common-enemy/ar-AA17A1lL


And Netanyahu pivoted to supporting Ukraine:

https://abcnews.go.com/International/live-updates/russia-ukraine/?id=88905005#96906103

And the JCPOA countries warn that Iran is accelerating its nuclear program:

https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/iaea-report-iran-nuclea-program/2579928


"We, the governments of France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States, take note of the report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that Iran has implemented a substantial change in the configuration of some of its centrifuges without informing the Agency in advance. These centrifuges produce high-enriched uranium up to 60% and are located at the Fordow Enrichment Plant."



Just yesterday: Israel accelerating ties with Saudi:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-17/israel-steps-up-talks-with-saudi-arabia-over-ties-to-combat-iran#xj4y7vzkg

And Iran attacked an Israeli oil tanker with drones.

https://mobile.mako.co.il/news-military/2023_q1/Article-2edc659daa06681027.htm?sCh=31750a2610f26110&pId=173113802




Lot of smoke here.


predicted YES

@SemioticRivalry This is the best comment I have seen on this site yet!! Thank you!! Certainly seems the market is too low. The idea of a strategic alliance between Netanyahu and MBS gives me a sick feeling in my stomach. Bibi's behavior and posturing has been notably different from his previous terms as PM. His reemergence was the initial inspiration for this question because I felt like if he could get power back again it is probably for the last time and he isn't going to be nearly as reserved as he had been. I am actually betting big YES on /ACXBot/13-will-any-other-war-have-more-cas because I think Israel may be ready to launch preemptive total war against Iran. The ongoing protests against the Ayatollah are the wild card and it is hard to say what the protesters would do if the government was threatened by external forces...

predicted YES

@BTE haha, thank you for the kind words.

actually very quickly after you posted this comment, Israel struck a bunch of Iranian targets in Syria, and unlike usual they actually took credit for it, and they even framed it as helping Ukraine. Doing this in the middle of Munich is pretty bold so they presumably know that they won't get shit for it from the relevant neutral countries, who are now much more friendly towards strikes on Iran due to Iran's arming of Russia.

https://twitter.com/IsraelWarRoom/status/1627060554878820355?s=20


"#BREAKING: The Israeli Air Force is striking Iranian targets in and around #Damascus. These strikes degrade Iran’s ability to amass and arm terrorists on Israel’s borders, and also degrade the Iranian facilities that build drones for Putin’s brutal invasion of #Ukraine."




I still think Biden is going to be extremely wary of a full scale Iranian conflict, and they need his approval for that. What is more likely, in my view, is an airstrike on key strategic targets to shut down any nuclear facilities, with friendly countries pledging to defend Israel from retaliation from Iranian proxies, in exchange for Israel helping Ukraine.



Russia's seeming use of human wave tactics in East Ukraine are certainly going to make it difficult for any other conflict to have more casualties.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-war-nato-anti-aircraft-missiles-russia-western-intel-h2rw9g6cg

"Russia is losing as many as 2,000 men for every 100 yards gained in human wave assaults in eastern Ukraine, according to Nato intelligence."

predicted YES

correction: the first twitter link is not an official government source (thanks elon), but this is still very likely to be israeli strikes on iranian targets

bought Ṁ35 of YES

Seems much more likely after the election than before.

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