[Experimental]: BTE Guessing Game
Mini
34
23k
resolved May 23
Resolved
YES
Took referral bonus from at-least one of his alts on Manifold
Resolved
YES
BTE will be the top market creator on manifold at some point before 2023 ends
Resolved
YES
BTE has more than one cat
Resolved
N/A
BTE knows multiple programming languages.
Resolved
N/A
You own a home
Resolved
N/A
Took referral bonus from atleast 3 alts on Manifold
Resolved
N/A
At resolution, you aren't subscribed to Manifold Markets channel in Telegram
Resolved
N/A
@BTE sleeps for less than 7 hours a night (median)
Resolved
N/A
BTE knows multiple languages (human languages only, not programming languages).
Resolved
N/A
BTE believes that this option is false.
Resolved
N/A
Has a fun club
Resolved
N/A
You feel like Manifold "Home" page feed is broken
Resolved
N/A
You have gone 2 nights in a row without sleeping
Resolved
N/A
You feel like Manifold "Home" page would be better off displaying some older markets
Resolved
N/A
There's at least 1 pet on the bed sleeping with you at night
Resolved
N/A
Before seeing this option, you'd noticed that "About" page is now only one screen in height
Resolved
N/A
Sleeps with at least two but as many as six people every night
Resolved
N/A
You Identify as an effective altruist (EA)
Resolved
N/A
Took referral bonus from atleast 4 alts on Manifold
Resolved
N/A
Believes there is actually something to horoscopes.

Shout out to @firstuserhere and @evergreenemily for the inspiration.

Here's how this works:

  • Anyone can submit a free response option in the form of a guess that they have about me. It can be about anything - guesses about my music taste, my research interests, my sleep habits, etc.

  • Try to guess something that's not already known about me. I will N/A really obvious attempts to "predict" known stuff.

  • If I don't feel comfortable answering the question in a public space like Manifold, I'll resolve the option to N/A.

  • Otherwise, I'll resolve to YES if the guess was right, NO if the guess was wrong, and 50% if it was partly right and partly wrong.

  • Between the option being submitted and me actually seeing and resolving it, you (and other traders) can spend mana to try to make a profit. If you're confident in a guess, buy YES - if you think someone has it wrong, buy NO. For obvious reasons, I won't bet on the options before resolving then.

    • I will generally wait for 2 or more people to make a trade, partly so that users get some trader bonuses, and so that people can converge on an opinion maybe

  • This continues indefinitely, because the market doesn't close when I resolve an individual option.

Have at it!

Thanks to @evergreenemily for this market idea. You can find her original market here

Get Ṁ600 play money

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Oh this is a local gym? Hmmm.

So... do you even lift bro?

I will reimburse anyone who adds a guess!!

@BTE I just spent minutes scrolling through "new" markets, and I have to say, thank goodness for BTE making markets!!!

You Identify as an effective altruist (EA)

Not actually sure if this if this is already known. If it is- oops, sorry.

@BTE sleeps for less than 7 hours a night (median)

I would say yes probably like 6 hours a night.

You have gone 2 nights in a row without sleeping

Guilty.

Took referral bonus from atleast 3 alts on Manifold

Yes all of them I think. That was ages ago though.

BTE will be the top market creator on manifold at some point before 2023 ends

resolves yes! @BTE

If that is true I must not value my time very much 🤣

similar:

Took referral bonus from at-least one of his alts on Manifold

Definitely.

BTE has more than one cat

Yep. Rod Carew above, Peanut and Fermi below.

@BTE Adorable