The market is questioning when Polymarket's Biden nomination prices will cross those on Manifold.
Corresponding Manifold market: https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
Polymarket market:
The prices are deemed to have crossed when there is a trade on Polymarket at a price that is greater than or equal to the current price on Manifold. (Manifold's price will be determined using a Python snippet.)
The market will resolve as N/A if no such trade occurs.
1,000
3.00@Ayers This can be resolved. Probably crossed sometime in June after the debate? Otherwise definitely crossed in July
@Tumbles I dunno, shouldn't they both end up at 95%+ once he's got the delegates formally locked up? I could see the Manifold price dropping a bit lower if there's some huge event and people suddenly need to free up some mana.
@Tumbles That crossed my mind too, but then I thought it was not such a huge problem. I was thinking of giving out a 0.01 price difference, so the market can resolve when they are almost equal.
@Joshua No. Once he's locked up the delegates, it will trade higher than 95 cents here. The day before the convention this will trade at 97 cents on poly.