A claim by either side stating the truce is broken will resolve the market. Resolves to Other if no deal is struck.
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Market with longer timeframe continues here.
https://manifold.markets/AviSchwartz/how-many-hours-will-the-israelhamas-7ef6574f014c
https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-11-25-2023-7d83895eb736c09fab3eada4c31524b0
“The late-night exchange was held up for several hours after Hamas accused Israel of violating the agreement.“
Does this constitute “A claim by either side stating the truce is broken”? Or does the breach need to result in full breakdown?
@DanPowell It's not just a temporary disagreement; the claim of a broken truce involves a lasting accusation followed by actions that go against the agreement, not something easily resolved.
@AviSchwartz So the facts on the ground are also irrelevant, it’s only whether the principals say that the ceasefire is over?
@DanPowell These types of blame games have historically always occurred as part of negotiations and not a real claim. If the accusing party continues to adhere to the truce, the claim loses relevance.
Considering the numerous corrections made post-market creation, should I resolve the market as NA?
@AviSchwartz I didn't bet just because of the confusion, but if no trader has any objections, maybe it's better. Next time, as they are multiple answers, I recommend simply adding an answer, so have both >48and 48-72.
@Emanuele98 To be clear, if it were to end at 12:30 PM, then 7:30 AM in Israel, there is no suitable option to fix it (I don't think it's a coincidence that the 26-73 option which is at 18%, as are almost all the answers, despite there being less than 6 hours to 73 hours to go and it's night in Israel...)
@benshindel You're right, I hadn't noticed. Then simply had to open a new market by resolving this with the >48h option.
@benshindel I feel like >24 implied >= 24... as it's weird for the ceasefire to last 24 or 72 hours or whatever, but if it doesn't last 1 hour extra, it won't resolve as such?
@benshindel I tried to stick to how the original buckets were: less than one hour, over 6 hours, and over 12 hours.
@benshindel The original lower bucket covered over 24 as the top limit. So, the next bucket kicks off at 26 and goes up to 73, surpassing 72.
@AviSchwartz that makes no sense... >24 is at most 25, but it's more logical to say that it implied greater than or equal to 24, as in lasting at least 24 hours. So 24 hours and 1 second should count. 26 makes no sense in any circumstance.
@benshindel you're basically saying that if I voted for a >24 bucket, and the ceasefire lasted 25 hours, that would still resolve negatively as you changed it to 26-73. That is extremely counterintuitive.
@benshindel Please check the history. > 24 hours was modified to 14-25 and resolves positively in either circumstance. It’s true I am adding the lower end that was missed before, but I'm aiming to stay true to the original intent. In the future I will not alter existing buckets after a market is created.
@benshindel I did ask the public if I should resolve this market as N/A. Please let me know your opinion and let’s hear from others a well.
@AviSchwartz N/A is last resort I wouldn't recommend; I think the buckets have been changed for a while, so... fine I guess. Users can always divest from the market. I'm just very confused by the methodology here, as well as why the buckets aren't in neat 12/24 hour divisions which could make it complicated for you to resolve if the ceasefire lasts an integer number of days.