Will a quantum computer with at least 1500 qubits be announced before the end of 2030? | Manifold

Will a quantum computer with at least 1500 qubits be announced before the end of 2030?

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15

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2031

91%

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D-Wave announced today: 4,400+ qubit Advantage2™ processor

Built: 2023: IBM Condor has 1,121 qubits

Built: 2024: Caltech tech demo (not a computer, more of a register) holds on average 6,139 qubits

Planned: Pasqual: 10,000 in 2026

Planned: IonQ: 13,312 in 2028

Need to specify what you mean by a quantum computer, and what you mean by a qubit. For example, do you accept IBM's Osprey having 433 qubits?

What do you mean with "announced"? Mentioned that it will be developed? Claimed that it exists? Proven that it exists?

predicts NO

@ErwinRossen Credibly claimed that exists, by a major research or engineering group.

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+3% 1d40% chance

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