What is the most counterintuitive feature of the 538 forecasting model?

Like many people in this audience, iirc you consider youself to be solidly in the Bayesian camp, philosophically speaking. What do you consider to be the strongest arguments against Bayesianism?

What's your probability that covid is a lab leak and why?

Would you consider moving more directly into projects to help reduce existential risk? (eg by running and writing about polls on proposed pandemic prevention or AI safety policies).

The market below says that you have an 89% chance of making a Manifold account this year. Do you think this is accurate? Would you consider making markets about “fun” things / your personal life?

Do people genuinely not understand that something with an 85% probability will not-happen 15% of the time? Or are they faking this in order to dunk?

More nicely: how well do pundits actually understand probability? And are they getting better?

Sleeping Beauty problem: Halfer or Thirder?

As someone with maybe 1/100 - 1/10,000 of your audience, I sometimes find myself frustrated by low-information people on the internet misunderstanding fairly anodyne comments I make. But I often see even dumber arguments people make against you (eg on Twitter). How do you keep your cool as a public intellectual etc when people seem to blatantly misunderstand you online?

What do you think folks with statistics and modeling skills should do to do good?

I thought his book title was bad and I hoped he would change it, but it wasn't till earlier tonight I realized that what I should've done was gotten Austin to ask him

How much mana do I have to bribe you to change your book title to "always tell me the odds"?

What do we low status nerds least understand about the ways the upper echelons of media and finance work?

How reliable do you think the polls are when they claim that the majority of Americans oppose further developments in AI and are in favor of an AI pause?

Do you think play-money prediction markets work? How do you think the dynamics compare to play-money poker?

In what situations do you think one should use statistical forecasting or prediction markets ?

What are the biggest prediction/forecasting lessons you've learned since the founding of 538

Have sports prediction markets led to better moneyball and/or contributed to sports being played at a higher level?

Still relevant? 🧡

@Austin This should probably be closed out now

What would it take for him to open source his 2024 presidential election model?

What’s your meta process like for figuring out how to craft models?

Models and inputs are two most common criticisms we make to forecasting. Are there any other factors that we often ignore?