Aka what % of people will choose "Yeah ofc" in this twitter poll:
Manifold polls sounds like a potential eggbasket violation. https://blog.beeminder.com/eggbasket/
(Non-serious aside: getting opinions on this via a poll reminds me of a comic I can't find where someone is showing a powerpoint slide with a bar graph of responses to a survey about answering surveys. "I diligently respond to surveys" vs "I throw away surveys without looking at them". The person pointing to the slide is saying "it turns out our customers LOVE answering surveys!". See also https://xkcd.com/2618/)
Advantages of building out Manifold-native polls:
Less frictionful
Could set up secret votes so the predicting is more meaningful
Could do more interesting kinds of votes (approval votes, ranked choice, 5-star, etc)
Ties each respondent to a Manifold account
Disadvantages
Takes time to implement this...
Running Twitter polls has more virality potential?
@Austin I suspect virality is not a real disadvantage because the chance of the official manifold account making a viral poll are very very small.
Conversely, anyone making a manifold poll that would have been a twitter poll otherwise is potentially bringing people they show the poll to directly to your site.