Will Manifold add native support for polls by 2022-08-30
18
5
101
resolved Aug 31
Resolved as
50%
Resolves YES if Manifold adds native support for betting on the result of informal internet polls hosted on Manifold. Resolves 50% if Manifold supports embedding polls from, eg, Twitter. Resolves NO if no additional support by market close.
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bought Ṁ100 of NO

Wait, are you counting the current ability to embed links to Twitter polls as 50% resolution? Dammit.

I really hate markets where the description contradicts the title. Twitter polls =/= native support. Whatever....

predicted YES

@MattP Yes, I am, Austin and I discussed this in contents below and it lines up with market description.

I think "native support" is not sufficiently precise which is why I gave more specific criteria in the description. When the market was created Twitter polls could not be embedded.

predicted NO

@MartinRandall Yeah, and that was stated clearly in the description (which I should've read before betting a bunch).

Should they tho?

(yes, I think the answer is yes)

I still think the idea is really good fwiw!

Actually, embedding a Twitter poll might not be that hard...

sold Ṁ26 of NO

@Austin Oh, in fact maybe already possible.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Which streaming service do you prefer?</p>&mdash; Funny Polls ☻ (@pollandtroll) <a href="https://twitter.com/pollandtroll/status/1104627788735115264?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 10, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

predicted NO

Nope.

Damn you took the alpha already

(for others trying to figure this out: click on the "Add embed" button and paste in the tweet link)

Seems like polls have dropped off in popularity recently.
predicted YES

@MartinRandall My guess is because it's annoying to use YES/NO comments for conducting polls, and then tallying comments. Native support would be awesome.

I also suggested that polls be automatically paired with an outcome market (poll results stay hidden till that market closes) to make it more in line with Manifold being a market prediction centered product.

predicted NO

@akhil Yeah, in my mind that stuff would all be configurable - public vs private (until the end) results, market resolves based on majority vs resolves to %, all that jazz.

bought Ṁ20 of YES
I feel like there is already enough use cases to justify adding such a feature. Whether we will or not though... *shrug*