Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2045, a post-Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) society—assuming AGI has been developed and humanity remains intact—implements criminal justice policies that are widely recognized as significantly more compassionate and rehabilitative toward criminals compared to pre-AGI standards. If even those considered the worst offenders are given a quality of life that would be considered good and desirable even for non criminal humans in the post AGI world this will be resolved yes. This determination will be based on credible reports from reputable sources such as academic journals, government publications, and major news outlets. If no substantial evidence is available by the resolution date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

Some thinkers such as Robert Sapolsky, Sam Harris, David Eagleman, Nagarjuna and other figure from moral and religious philosophy have argued human behavior and choice are ultimately determined by processes beyond one’s control or choice and thus people who end up choosing to do criminal or otherwise immoral behavior are unlucky on a certain level. If this perspective is adopted, the methods of treating of criminals one preferred might shift to something much more compassionate (& even really nice) and based around rehabilitation and great moral concern for criminals.

AGI has the potential to greatly deepen our understanding of the underlying causes of bad behavior as well as create greatly more effective means of prevention & rehabilitation. A very intelligent AGI in theory could create a world where all criminals are able to be rehabilitated and accepted as equals in every way to people with out any past of criminal behavior or immoral past.