What does this resolve to if AGI is not achieved, and in what cases does it resolve to "other"?

The future is always weirder than you assume. For example, in the 90s, you could have asked this question about globalization. The answer would be “plenty of both“ where billions of people were lifted out of poverty internationally, AND US labor unions lost power, AND US real median income increased anyway, AND somehow Japan (which was literally buying pieces of Manhattan) totally stagnated.

Also, how do you determine causation? For example, if AI exists and one of these outcomes occurs, how do you know for sure that AI "led to" the situation?

Don't mean to pick on you mate and I see that this is your first market. I think it's drawing some attention because it's actually an interesting question. But to make it really bettable as a market it needs some clarification and an objective resolution criteria. Otherwise it basically ends up coming down to how you as the question creator will end up feeling about things.

How does this resolve if power is still concentrated in the hands of few and yet everyone, or nearly everyone, has a quality of living that satisfies their needs and goals?

@MattCWilson Exactly, these are not alternatives but two (perhaps correlated) axes. How would today’s Singapore resolve?

I feel strongly that it’s “other” but I need some clarification on criteria from the question creator:

I think you could plausibly measure this with a combination of GINI and real quality of life growth. So what GINI / quality of life qualifies as utopia vs concentration?

I can easily imagine a scenario where even the poorest of the poor see changes to their QOL that are mind blowingly good but still GINI is sky high and increasing so what outcome does that represent?

Is there a deadline for this?