UPDATE: Specifically, we'll count the labeling as happening when there's a formal announcement that the Secretary of Defense has signed a written determination of supply chain risk status.
We use QQQ, the NASDAQ-100 ETF, as a proxy for the tech industry.
Metric: Percentage change from the opening price to the closing price of QQQ on the day the supply chain risk designation becomes public. If the announcement occurs after 3:30 PM ET or outside trading hours, use the next trading day's open-to-close instead.
Update 2026-03-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will wait for a formal designation by the Secretary of Defense (a written determination of supply chain risk status), not just preliminary announcements or directives. Tweets or statements directing the DoD to designate Anthropic are not sufficient - there must be a formal announcement that the Secretary of Defense has signed the written determination.
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@ASomewhatRudeParakeet Great point! I had not thought carefully about this, and turns out the ambiguity matters. I'll go with waiting for the formal designation, with apologies to traders who were making different assumptions.
I think this is the better measure for "market effect of actually going through with the supply chain risk thing", which is what I want to measure, because the market is currently pricing in some TACO probability.