Wikipedia maintains a list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_protests_and_demonstrations_in_the_United_States_by_size
The hands off protest of April 5th took the 5th position, with between 3 and 5 million participants. Will another protest in the US, before July 7th, unambiguously earn a position in the top 10? (This would require at least 1 million participants in a single day.)
(To be clear: vandalism to Wikipedia will not count. The protest must be independently and reputably reported with sufficient participation.)
Update 2025-04-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator
Organizer Claim Requirement: Organizers must claim more than 1 million participants in a single day.
Use of Independent Sources: Resolution will prioritize independent media estimates. If these are unavailable, the largest single location independent estimate will be used.
Fermi Estimate Fallback: A Fermi estimate based on a half dozen local events with independent reporting will be applied. If this estimate is less than 2 million, the market will resolve as NO.
Role of Wikipedia: Wikipedia is used solely as the source for the top 10 threshold and is not the basis for the resolution criteria.
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The Wikipedia page only says 3,000,000, not 5, and the 3,000,000 links to a Verge article which specifically says that the number was from organizers and was not verified.
Will you resolve YES if Wikipedia again uses unverified organizer estimates?
@CraigDemel no. I used 5 million as that was the entry status at the time of market creation, I did not check it. Wikipedia is not the resolution criteria, it's the source for "top 10" threshold.
My resolution intention: organizers must claim more than a million participants in one day And I will:
Try to find independent media estimates, if none exist then
use largest single location independent estimates, if too small then
Fermi estimate off of a half dozen local events with independent reporting
I'll note that if the fermi estimate is less than 2 million, I'll resolve no.
@ArtimisFowl Thanks! Given that organizers will definitely claim large numbers and very few local news organizations gave independent estimates for Hands Off, this is an easy YES.
@CraigDemel Given my low expectations for accuracy, I have bought more YES for today!