Numerous automotive brands are intensifying their efforts in the EV market, yet Tesla continues to dominate, selling more than its next 19 competitors combined, as per S&P Global Mobility data. But with forthcoming releases like Honda's Prologue EV set for 2024, can Tesla maintain its lead against these rising challengers?
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I asked Claude for help. I'm going with the interpretation from my previous comment: this is about the single largest competitor; the statement about "more than its next 19 competitors combined" was context about how far behind the competition was, not a statement that it's being judged based on the combined competitor sales. That is: I'm interpreting this question basically as whether Tesla is in the #1 spot, not market share > 50%. That said, it doesn't sound like it matters; Tesla won. Resolves No.
If this is in error please let me know promptly and we can fix it; I haven't really checked Claude's work.
@traders Market creator appears inactive. I'd like to clarify the resolution criteria and re-open the market for continued trading. I think the open questions about it are:
What does "by late 2024" mean? 2nd half 2024, Q4 2024, all of 2024? Before the 2nd half of 2024 or during it?
US or global sales figures?
Tesla vs. all competitors combined, or Tesla vs. any single competitor?
I'm inclined to clarify it and reopen, as "US sales in 2H 2024 as compared to the single largest other competitor", but I would like to understand what people were expecting and whether that seems about right.
@ArthurBotis Revenue for the whole year 2024? Q4? Something else? One competitor beating Tesla, or some other definition of "catch up"?
Also, I think this would be more interesting with the close date extended to the end of 2024.
If it is taken the production of the last 5 years of Tesla´s competitors, and is used the performance of sales of the year of 2022 to forecast the next 2 years (assuming they keep the same sale rate) it can be seen the only ones nearby Tesla are Rivian and Ford. Specifically Ford, had 109% increase of EV cars sales in 2022, while Tesla only 40%, but Tesla has more capacity for producing EVs than Ford, that´s why I can say Tesla will keep the leadership of EV sales by the end of 2024.
