YES WHEN:
The market will be resolved to 'Yes' if the closing value exactly matches 69%.
NO, WHEN:
If the closing value falls below or exceeds 69%, the outcome will be resolved to 'No'.
ON: 1st January 2024
(I will not participate in the market.)
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@Anurag Explain to me how your bet on 'No' will be profitable if it actually resolves as 'Yes.' There will be a losing side, with the gains of one side being offset by the losses of the other.
@Anurag Of course there's a risk of losing, that's the case for everything here. You only need to convince yourself that NO is more likely.
My argument is more from market mechanics – if you set two opposing limit orders at the same price, they annihilate each other, so it's difficult to maintain the 69% even with a lot of funds.
@Anurag see, you almost understand! The final thing you need to wrap your head around is the fact that the framing of the question means it’d take exponentially more inverstment for YES whales to balance the ratio on that head of a pin than for NO whales to topple it to either side.
@SteveAcomb Last night when I woke up the next morning It came to me naturally. I now finally got it