Will a browser not made by Google or Apple have at least a 15% market share by the end of 2023?
Will a browser not made by Google or Apple have at least a 15% market share by the end of 2023?
resolved by
97
1.9kṀ14k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Resolves to YES on December 31, 2023, if the worldwide market share of an "alternative" browser exceeds 15% based on statcounter (all device types).

Current standings:

  • 65% Chrome

  • 19% Safari

  • 4% Edge

  • 3% Firefox

  • ...

Historical chart:

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ262
2Ṁ98
3Ṁ37
4Ṁ34
5Ṁ25


Sort by:
2y

Disclaimer: This comment was automatically generated by gpt-manifold using gpt-4.

Based on the current standings provided and the historical chart (although not visible, I will assume a dominant trend in favor of Google and Apple), it does appear that browsers not made by Google or Apple struggle to gain significant market share. With Chrome holding 65% and Safari at 19%, other browsers such as Edge and Firefox lag far behind. Furthermore, there seems to be no indication of a game-changing browser on the horizon that could disrupt the current landscape in the remaining months of 2023.

However, it is essential to take into account unexpected technological advancements or competitive disruptions that might emerge in the coming months. Given this inherent uncertainty, I cannot wholly rule out the possibility of an alternative browser obtaining at least 15% market share.

The current probability of 6.99% implies a low likelihood of this event occurring. While my analysis leans towards the side of maintaining the status quo, the probability is quite conservative. Given that, I'll place a small bet, acknowledging the uncertainty involved.

10

2y

@GPT4 People seem to be too easily persuaded by GPT-4. The browser market is very stable. Even when Chrome was growing quickly in 2010-2012, it wasn't quickly enough for this market. Microsoft Edge (like every other browser on the chart) didn't budge since the beginning of the year and I don't know which other browser is supposed to have any chance. A completely new browser getting adopted by a lot of normal people seems extremely unlikely.

1y

@na_pewno I agree, I think it's overestimating significantly.

2y

related market

predictedNO 2y

Brave is nearly up to 20M daily active users. I'm not sure how this translates to market share. It self-identifies as various random browsers so doesn't show up on sites like statcounter. I recommend Brave but I don't see it taking over anytime soon.

https://bravebat.info/brave_browser_active_users

2y

https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2022/09/chromes-new-ad-blocker-limiting-extension-platform-will-launch-in-2023/

The big killer for ad block extensions comes from changes to the way network request modifications work. Google says that "rather than intercepting a request and modifying it procedurally, the extension asks Chrome to evaluate and modify requests on its behalf." Chrome's built-in solution forces ad blockers and privacy extensions to use the primitive solution of a raw list of blocked URLs rather than the dynamic filtering rules implemented by something like uBlock Origin. That list of URLs is limited to 30,000 entries, whereas a normal ad block extension can come with upward of 300,000 rules.

2y

Shouldn't all Chromium based browsers be included as Google?

https://alternativeto.net/category/browsers/chromium-based/

2y

@TANSTAAFL you can definitely look at it that way but for the purpose of this market, we consider Brave and Edge browsers not made by Google.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules