Will a non-Chromium based web browser be the most popular browser by the end of 2025?

Most web browsers are built around the Chromium framework, which is primarily developed by Google. This gives Google an outsized influence on an even greater proportion of the web browser market than merely Google Chrome. Some would argue that this gives too much control over web standards to a single corporation, which in turn could be deleterious for the health of the internet overall - akin to the hegemony and eventual downfall of Netscape.

Notable Chromium-based browsers include:

  • Brave

  • Chrome

  • Edge

  • Opera

  • Samsung Internet

  • Vivaldi

Notable non-Chromium-based browsers include:

  • Firefox

  • Safari

  • UC Browser

Will resolve based on data from Statcounter. If Statcounter data is no longer available at the time of resolutions, I will resolve based on data from a similar source at my discretion.

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josh avatar

Verifying a couple of details here:

  • Anything using the Blink browser engine would qualify as using the "Chromium framework" by your definition, right? Even if it uses no other parts of Chrome or Chromium other than the engine itself?

  • Anything not using the Blink browser engine would not qualify, even if it shares a few other components with Chrome/Chromium? (For instance, Firefox uses the skia graphics library, which originated in Chrome.)

jonny avatar
Jonny Spiceris predicting NO at 13%

@josh You're correct on both points - I probably should've made this question about using Blink rather than using Chromium. I'm mostly interested in Blink vs Gecko/WebKit. Thanks for the helpful question :)

josh avatar

@jonny I think it would be reasonable to edit the market description accordingly, to clarify that.

nfd avatar

Are you considering mobile browsers?

jonny avatar
Jonny Spiceris predicting NO at 11%

@nfd Yes - the Statcounter link in the description is for browsers on all platforms

JemBishop avatar
Jem Bishopbought Ṁ15 of NO

Market share of chrome would have to decrease at least 20% for this to happen, looking at trends this is very unlikely. I imagine it correlates with android vs ios usership, and though it looks like apple is increasing its %, no way it overtakes android in 2yrs.

jonny avatar
Jonny Spiceris predicting NO at 50%

@JemBishop if you think there is "no way" that this market resolves to yes, shouldn't you be better more than Ṁ15 on it? ;)

I agree it's unlikely, but I think there are plausible paths to it happening, trends are not always indicative of the future. I mostly thought this question was a more interesting/relevant flavour of this one:

JemBishop avatar
Jem Bishopis predicting NO at 50%

@JemBishop I would buy more but I have no more money :) Also the LP is very small so wouldn't make sense economically.