Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032?

Question

This market will solve to YES if by Dec 2032, Google Search market share measured by GS Statscounter is lower than 60%.

Market share as of Oct 2022:

[image]I am increasingly surprised by AI advances that I think Google's moat could be under attack soon, either by startups or by Apple. The pace of copycats to breakthrough models like AlphaFold, GPT-3 and Dalle-2 makes me think people are overestimating how defensible is artificial inteligence breakthroughs.

Creator policy: I won't bet.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 34% chance (49 traders, as of Aug 2, 2026).