Will any US congressional seats be elected by proportional election by the end of 2028?
Will any US congressional seats be elected by proportional election by the end of 2028?
5
130Ṁ1352029
13%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if at any point before 2029, the established voting method for any seat in the US house of representatives is a form of proportional representation. Any form of proportional representation counts: STV, MMP, and party-list would all count.
The seats must be voting seats; if a PR method for electing non-voting congressional delegates is established that will not count for resolution.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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