@Dang he's already in his second term, so this resolves "Both" if he eventually does go to prison

@SentientTree I think that's fairly obvious from the resolution criteria? But also pretty unlikely he also goes to prison given he'd have live long enough for a court judgement

@Ansel I was just saying that because someone was buying YES shares for "Prison" which is now impossible. "A Second Term" should go to 99% imo.

The sum of Prison+Both is only 15, but the linked market has prison at 40 percent. Why is there such a huge arb opportunity?

This was one of my early markets and I neglected to add a clear description. I’d like to clarify a bit what I mean here. “Prison” and “Both” will would resolve based on the definition here:

https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned?r=QW5zZWw

The “A second term” and “both” options will resolve based on whether Donald J. Trump is ever President of the United States again, regardless of how he gets there.

When will Trump be imprisoned?

Resolves based on day that his prison sentence starts, or "never" if he dies without serving a prison sentence. What counts? Jail or house arrest pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence. Prison post-conviction counts. Jail post-conviction MAY count, to be determined, see comments. House arrest post-conviction MAY count, to be determined, see comments.