Donald Trump’s Destiny
➕
Plus
82
Ṁ21k
2032
94%
A Second Term
1.4%
Prison
4%
Both
0.3%
Neither

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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The sum of Prison+Both is only 15, but the linked market has prison at 40 percent. Why is there such a huge arb opportunity?

This was one of my early markets and I neglected to add a clear description. I’d like to clarify a bit what I mean here. “Prison” and “Both” will would resolve based on the definition here:

https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned?r=QW5zZWw

The “A second term” and “both” options will resolve based on whether Donald J. Trump is ever President of the United States again, regardless of how he gets there.

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