Contingent Market: Donald Trump Election and Constitutional Crisis
Basic
4
Ṁ1002030
1D
1W
1M
ALL
30%
Trump wins: Constitutional Crisis
55%
Trump loses: Constitutional Crisis
Trump winning the election will be determined by the outcome of this market:
https://www.manifoldpolitics.com/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
Constitutional crisis will be determined by the outcome of this market:
https://manifold.markets/Ansel/will-the-united-states-experience-a?r=QW5zZWw
If Trump wins, 2. Resolves N/A
If Trump does not win, 1. Resolves N/A
The remaining option then resolves as per the Constitutional Crisis market.
Edit: The “Trump Loses” option includes all scenarios where he is not duly elected president, such as not being on the ballot
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
What 2024 markets will resolve in the same direction as Trump winning the election? [Free Response Correlation Market]
Will Trump Win 2024 Election AND [Major Market] Resolve YES?
What markets will resolve Yes if Trump Elected, but No if anyone else is elected? [Free Response Correlation Market]
Conditional on Trump running for a third term, will he win?
35% chance
Which consequences will Donald Trump face?
Conditional on Trump getting elected, how will the US democracy index have changed by the end of his term.
Will there be a financial markets' panic due to expectations of a 2nd Trump administration by inauguration day?
12% chance
Contingent on Trump winning the election, will any of the DAs or judges currently trying him go to jail?
18% chance
Will a scandal erupt around Donald Trump before the 2024 election that costs him >.5% of his support base?
65% chance
Will there be "bedlam" in the US if Trump loses the election?
10% chance