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Guessing the recent YES bets were due to this news:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-meets-several-hostage-families-amid-murmurs-of-a-possible-new-swap-deal/

But I'd just emphasise the timeline - there are 11 days left in the year and the article quotes

senior Israeli official says, ‘Any deal will be difficult and will demand heavy prices. It’s still a long way off’

@chrisjbillington Ten prisoners are needed to reach 250, a single exchange is enough... (And considering how much I have already lost, the exposure is less than it seems 😅)

Reducing my exposure but hoping that some elderly, non-military men, or PIJ-held women get offered up to continue the truce.

I now expect the current truce to end, but am not selling everything since there could be another truce before EoY. Even a one-off trade in December could push it over 250, since right now it seems to be at ~210.

@Panfilo I will bet heavily that there will not be another ceasefire/hostage deal in 2023 if this one ends.

@Panfilo With today they should reach 246 Correction, 240, unfortunately some hostages were dead.

@Shump

For you ;)

https://manifold.markets/GCS/will-the-be-a-second-ceasefire-in-t?r=R0NT

180 freed so far. Bear mana seems to be assuming the ceasefire will not keep getting extended despite Hamas’s willingness to continue the exchanges.

@Panfilo Notably, it would require ~1 more day of exchanges at the established rates in order for this threshold to be crossed than it would for the 100 Israelis released threshold in the other market. So I see that market at 80% and think this market being at 54% is totally reasonable. But maybe both are wrong and everything will end tonight! I sure hope not.

@Panfilo Note that while Hamas was willing to continue the exchanges, it was not willing to continue the ceasefire (or at least, their side of it. They were happy to be able to shoot Israelis without getting shot back).

Is this 250 for 1 deal? Or is it 250 for all the Palestinians released since the conflict?

@kaiemon There has to be 250 Palestinians in total released since the start of the conflict.

I'm not saying I'm optimistic, but given we have the rest of the year I thought 25% was too low.

According to the current deal, this will only happen if Hamas releases 90 Israeli hostages, and the ceasefire lasts for 8 days. It's not out of the question, as I've seen reports that say there are about 100 eligible hostages in Gaza, but Hamas currently doesn't know where they all are, who holds them, and if they are alive.

Weird definition of "significant".

@MaybeNotDepends Eg. way too low. If you are white and are saying the release of 100 Palestinians isn't significant - ask why.

@MaybeNotDepends This question resolves to yes if more than 250 Palestinians are released as part of a deal to secure the hostages in Gaza by the end of the year.

@MaybeNotDepends I guess "significant" wasn't the right word. This market is mainly meant to predict whether Israel would agree to Hamas's proposal of a mass release of prisoners in Israel. I picked the number 250 pretty arbitrarily so I could have a concrete way to resolve the market. I'll change the title to "a large number of Palestinian prisoners" if you're offended by it.

@Anovak Is it always 250 Palestinians? Because the agreement is for 150.

@Emanuele98 Yes, it has to be more than 250 prisoners released before the end of the year so only 150 would not count. If there are additional prisoners released later in the year it would contribute to the total though.

@Anovak fwiw you could write "250+" in the title instead of "a large amount"

@MartinRandall Good idea, I'll update it