Several political figures in the United States, including US national security adviser Robert O’Brien and former Republican primary candidate Vivek Ramaswamy have suggested that liberalization of Taiwanese gun ownership laws could dissuade a CCP invasion (source).

This market will resolve positively if there is legislation related to gun ownership available on the Laws & Regulations Database of the ROC (Taiwan) by the resolution date which reduces restrictions on firearm ownership.

According to the Controlling Guns, Ammunition and Knives Act, firearm ownership by civilians is strictly prohibited. There are a few exceptions, one for homemade muzzle-loading rifles used for hunting by indigenous people, and another for harpoon guns used by fishermen.

This market will only resolve positively if there is legislation reducing gun ownership restrictions to a broad section of the Taiwanese populace. For example, reduction of restrictions on what types of guns that indigenous Taiwanese can use for hunting would not be sufficient to make this market resolve positively.

However, the "reduced restrictions" could be incredibly strict from an international standpoint. For example, this market would resolve positively if the new legislation restricts gun ownership to only people who have completed firearms training as part of mandatory military service.