Will trump step down

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Donald Trump voluntarily resigns or is removed from the presidency before his term ends on January 20, 2029. This includes resignation, removal via the 25th Amendment, or impeachment and conviction. The market resolves NO if Trump remains in office through the end of his term or if his term ends through normal succession (death in office, etc.).

Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the White House, Congress, or major news outlets reporting the event.

Background

Trump's second tenure as president began upon his inauguration as the 47th president on January 20, 2025. His current term ends on January 20, 2029. No sitting U.S. president has ever voluntarily resigned; Richard Nixon is the only president to resign, doing so in 1974 to avoid impeachment.

Considerations

Removal from office requires either voluntary resignation, the 25th Amendment process (which requires the vice president and cabinet majority, or a two-thirds congressional vote), or impeachment conviction (requiring a two-thirds Senate majority). The Republican Party currently holds majorities in both the House and Senate, making removal through these mechanisms unlikely absent extraordinary circumstances.

This description was generated by AI.