Will a major social media site or news outlet incorporate a betting feature that emulates manifold by 2025?

Basic

Ṁ551

2025

31%

chance

ALL

resolves yes if Twitter, Facebook, NYT, or WSJ incorporate a social prediction/betting feature. Also resolved yes of the existing manifold site/app are directly incorporated into any existing established web site.

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Does Manifold adhere purely to open source idea sharing?

@Andyf1fb I've extended the close date to 2025-01-02, to allow people to keep trading this. If that's not what you intended, please let us know and change it back. In general, keeping stuff open makes for better participation, is more interesting, and avoids locking up people's mana.

predicts NO

@Andyf1fb you may wish to extend the market's close date, which is currently set to EOY 2023.

This is only about Twitter, Facebook, NYT, and WSJ? Not any other sites?

Seems like two mainstream journalists are seriously considering this, and Manifold is offering to make it happen. https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Hard-Fork-Podcast-Notes-dc1fcf61932842bd98a8a7a5e320d6f4

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