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resolving no based on https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-chemical-weapons-be-used-in-uk#pqyLsvO9IVWQEk4ArwlW

@AndyMartin this is inaccurate, it should be resolved yes

@Lorelai could you provide links that meet the resolution criteria in the description?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russia-admits-to-using-banned-chemical-weapons-in-ukraine-5vqx27lmb

Per https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-chemical-weapons-be-used-in-uk#pqyLsvO9IVWQEk4ArwlW , I'm going to wait a bit longer to resolve this

@AndyMartin If you're going to wait up to three months to resolve, why not leave the market open in that time?

@chrisjbillington re-opened and added this to the top of the description

[left open while waiting for the resolution criteria below - please read the entire description before betting]

Russia Admits Using Prohibited Chemical Weapons on Ukrainian Troops

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/25906

@papa also: https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.businessinsider.com/ukrainian-troops-say-russian-drones-are-dropping-tear-gas-choking-starting-fires-2023-12&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwinssaSqaqDAxUiDkQIHa42ATIQFnoECAoQAg&usg=AOvVaw0W2nkEQBRaLnJhZcM53zda from a few days ago and this from the past day https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-admits-to-using-tear-gas-chemical-weapons-on-ukrainian-troops-2023-12

@Abraxas it really should be in the description, but the standard of evidence the creator is requiring for a YES resolution is:

• The heads of state of at least two permanent members of the UN Security Council make a definitive statement to the effect that Russia has used chemical weapons.

• There is a resolution by the UNSC or by the UN General Assembly condemning the use of chemical weapons in the Ukraine by Russia.

• At least 6 of the following sources make a definitive statement that Russia has used chemical weapons: The Economist, The New York Times, Reuters, The Associated Press, The Guardian, The BBC, Al Jazeera, South China Morning Post, The Financial Times, The Washington Post.

@chrisjbillington lol oh jeez, thanks for linking that. Wish that was more prominent

@Abraxas yeah sorry about that - I updated the description with this:

Per https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-chemical-weapons-be-used-in-uk#Xfufv9JlsL4TYNIemLIi this will use the following resolution criteria:

• The heads of state of at least two permanent members of the UN Security Council make a definitive statement to the effect that Russia has used chemical weapons.

• There is a resolution by the UNSC or by the UN General Assembly condemning the use of chemical weapons in the Ukraine by Russia.

• At least 6 of the following sources make a definitive statement that Russia has used chemical weapons: The Economist, The New York Times, Reuters, The Associated Press, The Guardian, The BBC, Al Jazeera, South China Morning Post, The Financial Times, The Washington Post.

As of Dec 25th, there have been reports like https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/19/europe/ukraine-soldiers-russia-frontlines-cmd-intl/index.html of tear gas use, and even https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-23-2023 reporting that the Russian forces involved have confirmed their own use of them. I may wait up to an additional 3 months to resolve this, but will only use reporting/resolution/statements that cover chemical weapons use in 2023 for resolution.

(I may also simply resolve this N/A.)

I've made a similar market for Israel/Palestine: https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/will-a-chemical-or-biological-weapo?r=UGFuZmlsbw

Will a chemical or biological weapon be used in Israel or Palestine before the end of 2023?

14% chance. Resolves to Yes if any party uses a chemical or biological weapon on any target military or civilian, within Israel or Palestine, by the end of the year. If such weapons are not discovered, or are discovered but not used, this resolves No. Weapons that are only technically chemical (such as explosives) or biological (such as waste water) will not count; please accept the spirit of the question. Israel is suspected to have ongoing chemical and biological weapons programs: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Chemical_weapons Hamas has been accused of carrying around chemical weapon manufacturing instructions during terrorist attacks: https://vxtwitter.com/SkyNews/status/1716176823862587814

@AndyMartin what criteria are you going to use to decide if something counts as a chemical weapon?

@42irrationalist will use the criteria from https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10448/russian-use-of-chemical-weapons-in-ua-2022/ (ignoring the parts that mention/require attribution)

@AndyMartin The criteria around heads of state of UN countries having to declare that chemical weapons were used? Or just the definition of chemical weapons?

Can you confirm whether use of tear gas as linked below counts?

@chrisjbillington tear gas would count - it's just missing one of these three:

any of the following three conditions are met:

• The heads of state of at least two permanent members of the UN Security Council make a definitive statement to the effect that Russia has used chemical weapons.

• There is a resolution by the UNSC or by the UN General Assembly condemning the use of chemical weapons in the Ukraine by Russia.

• At least 6 of the following sources make a definitive statement that Russia has used chemical weapons: The Economist, The New York Times, Reuters, The Associated Press, The Guardian, The BBC, Al Jazeera, South China Morning Post, The Financial Times, The Washington Post.

(with the caveat mentioned above that attribution to Russia or Ukraine isn't necessary)

@AndyMartin Excellent, thanks for the clarification.

Shouldn't this resolve as YES now. There are reports of Russia using tear gas grenades in Bakhmut. Despite these grenades being used for riot control, it's actually prohibited to use them during warfare.

https://tsn.ua/en/amp/ato/evidences-of-the-enemy-s-use-of-chemical-weapons-are-being-collected-on-the-battlefield-russians-boast-about-violation-of-the-rules-of-war-on-their-tv-2289907.html

@42irrationalist just adding on, here's another article: Kremlin-backed news channel reports Russia used tear gas grenades on Ukrainian troops — Meduza

the news report: https://www.1tv.ru/news/issue/2023-05-02/21:00#2

@higherLEVELING Meduza is a fairly reliable source, in my opinion. It's one of the main Russian opposition media (they are located outside of Russia).

There is also a mention in a Conflict Intelligence Team's sitrep ("situation report"), an independent team (leaning pro-Ukraine).

it seems surprising to me that this is so much higher than https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/will-russia-use-chemical-or-biologi-e790d5158f6a

@AndyMartin The timeframes for the questions are quite different

fwiw it was at 62 when ^ was posted