Will a chemical or biological weapon be used in Israel or Palestine before the end of 2023? [Ṁ600 Pool]
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Resolves to Yes if any party uses a chemical or biological weapon on any target military or civilian, within Israel or Palestine, by the end of the year. If an attack is ambiguous, we will wait until both CNN and Al Jazeera declare that some kind of chemical attack took place, regardless of its perpetrators. If such weapons are not discovered, or are discovered but not used, this resolves No. Weapons that are only technically chemical (such as explosives) or biological (such as waste water) will not count; please accept the spirit of the question.

Israel is suspected to have ongoing chemical and biological weapons programs: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Chemical_weapons

Hamas has been accused of carrying around chemical weapon manufacturing instructions during terrorist attacks: https://vxtwitter.com/SkyNews/status/1716176823862587814

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A lot of speculation about how deep Hamas tunnels might be dealt with via various legal and illegal gases right now.

@Panfilo Would make much more sense for the IDF to use carbon dioxide (Palmer Luckey suggested this in an interview, it would make the terrorists feel stuffy but not kill them) or nitrogen. Why would the IDF use nerve gas? It would just be bad diplomatically.

predicted YES

@nathanwei Would make much more sense for the IDF to use special forces (Multiple people suggested this in interview, it would deal with the terrorist threat but not kill civilians.) Why would the IDF use bombs? It would just be bad diplomatically.

@KeenenWatts infrastructure

predicted NO

Uhh update I guess

What about crowd control agents such as CS gas or "Skunk"? Would it depend on use: pushing a crowd from a lethal-effects zone vs flushing militants from tunnel systems?

predicted NO

@WesleyJB I'm accepting the normie CWC definitions, but I do acknowledge that even common tear gas can kill people under certain circumstances.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@Panfilo Good, I wouldn't be surprised if the IDF deployed a lot of CS gas to try to keep civilians out of hot zones, but don't think that should be called a chemical weapon.

@WesleyJB or pump it into the tunnels. We did that in Vietnam.

What about white phosphorous?

bought Ṁ5 of NO

@mariopasquato Good question! It's considered an incendiary, not a chemical weapon.

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