Will Russia use chemical or biological weapons in 2022?
Will Russia use chemical or biological weapons in 2022?
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325Ṁ4541resolved Jan 1
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Mar 2, 10:36pm: To clarify, only use as a military technique counts, not as an assassination technique.
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In a news story about the US officials intentionally pushing misinformation as part of an information war against Russia (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-using-declassified-intel-fight-info-war-russia-even-intel-isnt-rock-rcna23014), US officials admit that their previous assertions that "Russia might be preparing to use chemical agents in Ukraine" were false, and in fact, "There is no evidence Russia has brought any chemical weapons near Ukraine." Of course, this could be more misinformation, but I don't see the value in it as that, so I'm tempted to believe it's actually true.
If, when the question closes, there is widespread reporting that Russia did the attacks and there is not much reported doubt, then I will resolve YES. If it seems ambiguous I will either resolve as N/A or at a percentage that I think is reasonable. (Eg. resolve at 33% if I think there’s a 2/3 chance that the attacks were false flag attacks.) This of course would also go the other way if there are supposed Ukrainian attacks that are widely believed to be caused by Russia.
@Gabrielle how do you intend to handle the possibility of a false flag attack? E.g. something along the lines of how the Syrian rebels staged a sarin gas attack at Ghouta in 2013 and a chlorine gas attack at Douma in 2018.
This should include the poisoning of one individual person, right? I know people are probably thinking large-scale weapons of mass destruction, but this is not specified in the question. Russia poisoned one individual with what could be termed a chemical weapon as recently as 2020. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisoning_of_Alexei_Navalny
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Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
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In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
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