Will Trump reach X% on Manifold by Halloween?

Ṁ1.7kṀ7.7k

resolved Oct 28

Resolved

YES

51%

Resolved

YES

60%

Resolved

YES

52%

Resolved

YES

53%

Resolved

YES

54%

Resolved

YES

55%

Resolved

YES

56%

Resolved

YES

57%

Resolved

YES

58%

Resolved

YES

59%

An answer resolves to YES if the answer's percentage (or higher) is reached as the displayed percentage of the following embedded question before this question closes on Halloween, NO otherwise:

Market context

2024 US Presidential Election

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Trump went to 59% around 2:54 AM.

More details on the trade by @Victory_VIJAY:

@AndrewKeen Sorry. I didn't even know that. This Existed. Few months before I went all in. Jimmy Carter beginning. A Centurion. And I won big. I thought I'm gonna try this again.(I know there is huge chance of me losing. But. It's fake money.)

@Victory_VIJAY No need to be sorry. I was wondering if someone would arbitrage this and tried to design this question to see how high it could go after my last question got arbitraged at 50%.

Just for clarification: this is for the mana market's probability correct (that's the one you embedded)?

@SirSalty Correct

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