Conditional on Russia issuing a nuclear ultimatum, will the US or NATO choose to call their bluff? | Manifold

Conditional on Russia issuing a nuclear ultimatum, will the US or NATO choose to call their bluff?

Basic

10

Ṁ171

resolved Mar 2

Resolved

N/A

1D

1W

1M

ALL

For the purposes of this market, a "nuclear ultimatum" will be if an official Russian government source issues a threat of a nuclear strike connected with any specific action on the part of another actor.

"Calling their bluff," in this case, would mean that the US or another NATO member chooses to take that action (or support it if the threatened party isn't a NATO member). Again, statements by official state sources will be determinative.

I will set a deadline for the parties to do the thing (or not) by the end of March 2023. The market closes at the end of Feb 2023 - if no ultimatum is issued by that date, I will resolve the market as N/A. At the end of March, if the ultimatum has been issued but NATO/the US has not yet violated it, I will resolve this as NO. I feel the YES resolution will likely be obvious if it occurs.

Oct 7, 10:49am: If it's relevant, I might choose to bet in this market, though I don't presently have a strong prior either way.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

Everyone is going to be vague so they can blame the other guy for wiping out the northern hemisphere.

@MartinRandall Yeah, we'll see - the Cuban Missile Crisis did in fact have an explicit ultimatum, but everyone mostly seems to agree that was a really bad idea. Will they give it another go? I'm not really sure, but the markets seem to think the odds are pretty high.

Related questions

Will Russia issue an ultimatum this year for a ceasefire agreement, using the threat of tactical nuclear weapons?

Conditional on Russia using nuclear weapons by 2025, will India officially condemn Russia, announce the end of the partnership, and - in the perception of NATO consensus - act accordingly?

Will Russia retaliate militarily on any non-participating member of NATO before the end of 2025?

Will Russia nuke Ukraine?

In the eventuality of a nuclear weapon being used, which country is most likely to detonate it first?

Conditional on Russia using nuclear weapons by 2025, will China officially condemn Russia, announce the end of the partnership, and - in the perception of NATO consensus - act accordingly?

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the Russia-Ukraine war?

-5% 1d15% chance

If NATO troops fight in the Ukraine war, will Russia use a nuclear weapon?

Conditinal on Crimea being taken by Ukranian army, will Russia avoid using nuclear weapons?

How many times before January 1st will Putin publicly mention the threat of a nuclear showdown or human extinction?

Related questions

Will Russia issue an ultimatum this year for a ceasefire agreement, using the threat of tactical nuclear weapons?

Conditional on Russia using nuclear weapons by 2025, will China officially condemn Russia, announce the end of the partnership, and - in the perception of NATO consensus - act accordingly?

Conditional on Russia using nuclear weapons by 2025, will India officially condemn Russia, announce the end of the partnership, and - in the perception of NATO consensus - act accordingly?

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the Russia-Ukraine war?

Will Russia retaliate militarily on any non-participating member of NATO before the end of 2025?

If NATO troops fight in the Ukraine war, will Russia use a nuclear weapon?

Will Russia nuke Ukraine?

Conditinal on Crimea being taken by Ukranian army, will Russia avoid using nuclear weapons?

In the eventuality of a nuclear weapon being used, which country is most likely to detonate it first?

How many times before January 1st will Putin publicly mention the threat of a nuclear showdown or human extinction?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules