Kamala Harris's 2024 popular vote share
Plus
388
Ṁ240kresolved Nov 10
100%95%
<50%, loses popular vote
4%
>50%, wins popular vote
0.3%
Exactly 50%
1.1%
<50%, wins popular vote
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Another arbitrage opportunity here, since this market is bullish on Harris relative to others:
https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/will-donald-trump-win-the-popular-v-nkvd5qs9lh
@AndrewG Are we rounding this to the nearest percentafg point? Because odds of a fair coin landing on heads exactly 75 million times out of 150 million is basically zero.
In 50% of worlds there's an odd number of total votes, and in that case, a 75000000-75000001 result would still not count as exactly 50%
Yes; thus the absence of a ">50%, loses popular vote" option
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