Will a Democrat win an absolute majority of the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
82
210Ṁ45k
resolved Nov 6
Resolved
NO

Resolves Yes if the Democratic nominee has >50% of all votes cast in the 2024 Presidential Election by the time the new President is inaugurated.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ15,937
2Ṁ1,217
3Ṁ124
4Ṁ121
5Ṁ110
Sort by:

How do I put a limit order to sell if I have no liquidity? If I sell all 4775 shares it goes down to 11%? I can barely sell more than 50 M at a time.

@ChinmayTheMathGuy you can create a limit order to buy no shares at whichever % you think is appropriate, which will automatically sell your current yes shares if other people try buying yes at that %

Is there any semantic difference I am missing here between "win the popular vote" and "win an absolute majority of the popular vote?" Either implies 50%+1 vote?

Third parties, I believe. If libertarians get 15%, Kamala gets 49%, and Trump gets 36%, she's won the popular vote without an absolute majority.

@mongo Exactly, the standard terminology would be plurality vs majority, but I wanted to avoid misinterpretations so I used 'absolute majority'.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules