Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2028, any of the following events occur representing a loss of legislative or "parliamentary" support for U.S. President Donald Trump:

1. Loss of Republican Majority in the U.S. Congress: The Republican Party loses majority control of either the U.S. House of Representatives or the U.S. Senate (for example, as a result of the November 2026 midterm elections, or due to party defections/vacancies), resulting in a divided government. This will be verified via official election outcomes published by Ballotpedia or major news outlets.

2. Official Rejection of Support by a Major Foreign Parliament: A major allied legislative body (such as the European Parliament or the UK House of Commons) passes a formal resolution or vote that explicitly halts cooperation on a major bilateral initiative or treaty with the Trump administration (such as suspending the EU-US tariff agreement). This will be verified via official parliamentary records.

3. Internal Party Defection in Congress: A majority of congressional Republicans in either the House or the Senate vote to block or defeat a signature legislative priority of the Trump administration, representing an explicit internal break in party support.

If none of these conditions are met by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2027, the market will resolve to NO.

Note to Market Creator: Because the term "parliament" is ambiguous when applied to the U.S. political system, you are encouraged to edit these criteria to specify whether this market should strictly track control of the U.S. Congress or relations with a specific foreign parliament. If no edits are made, the market will resolve according to the broad criteria outlined above.

Background

While the United States operates under a presidential system with a Congress, international observers and non-native speakers frequently refer to the U.S. legislative branch as its "parliament."

As Donald Trump's second term progresses, several legislative developments are under close scrutiny:

• U.S. Congressional Control: Heading into the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans hold narrow majorities in both the House and the Senate (including a 53–45 Senate majority). However, internal party tensions have risen over key votes, intelligence nominee confirmations, and the administration's military spending requests regarding the war in Iran.

• Transatlantic Relations: Abroad, actual parliaments have periodically clashed with the Trump administration. The European Parliament finally approved a highly contested trade and tariff agreement with the U.S. in June 2026, but included a clause allowing for the suspension of tariff preferences by December 31, 2026, if U.S. steel tariffs remain unresolved. Meanwhile, political friction has escalated in the UK Parliament after Trump publicly intervened in British domestic politics surrounding the resignation of Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

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