Will a quantum computer break any widely used cryptosystem before 2030?
5
300Ṁ222Feb 6
18%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
YES
• Shor-capable systems are progressing faster than predicted.
• Attackers may be ahead of the scientific disclosures.
• Harvest-now-decrypt-later attacks already accumulating data.
NO
• Error correction overhead remains extremely large.
• Practical, scalable quantum systems might still be a
decade away.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?
33% chance
Will quantum computing break cybersecurity by 2030?
17% chance
Will a quantum computer successfully use Shor’s algorithm to break a public-key cryptosystem, e.g. RSA, by 2030?
15% chance
Will quantum computing achieve practical advantage in cryptography before 2030?
30% chance
Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?
18% chance
Will a quantum computer show a clear advantage vs classical computers in solving a major cryptographic problem by 2030?
39% chance
SHA-256 broken by quantum computer before 2030
8% chance
Will quantum computers, or any other type of computer, be able to crack bitcoin's ECDSA signatures before 2050?
28% chance
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2030?
7% chance
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2035?
45% chance