Will real money political prediction markets be legal in the US before the end of 2025?
10
56
280
2026
20%
chance

Resolves Yes if any major real money prediction market platform based in the US started offering markets on US elections.
Resolves No otherwise.

*It could be the case that real money political prediction markets have became gray area legal but no US real money prediction market platform are willing to offer US election markets due to the risk. In this case, as long as no US election markets are offered by any US real money prediction market platforms, this resolves NO


Note: Predictit is New Zealand based, therefore is excluded
Iowa electronic market and ACE I do not count as real money political prediction markets platform because its academic research based not commercial based.

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How do I buy "N/A"?

@HarrisonNathan what do you mean

@AmmonLam I mean that it's pretty unlikely to be clear whether they are legal and so this market has a high probability of resolving N/A.

@HarrisonNathan added more clarification, let me know if you still see gray area in this

@AmmonLam you should probably specifically exclude PredictIt, IEM, ACE.

@MickBransfield Yes, predictit is clearly excluded because it’s New Zealand based

@MickBransfield added the clear exceptions